NASS tracks market price movements after reports
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the annual Price Reactions following USDA Crop Reports report March 9, showing commodity price reactions following the Crop Production and Grain Stocks reports.
Since the mid-1980’s NASS has tracked market price movement for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton, calculating commodity prices one day after and one week after reports, including the number of times prices increased, remained unchanged, and decreased. For each of those fluctuations, we’ve noted the value of how much it changed. The recent report shows mixed reactions across time.
“Many different sources of information move commodity markets, such as weather, domestic supply and world supply,” said David Knopf, director of the NASS Eastern Mountain Regional Office in Kentucky. “NASS reports are two sources of domestic supply data, and it’s important to see what happens following the reports.
Corn Prices Day After Crop Production reports, 1985-2017
- Price increased: 68 times
- Average increase: 7.8 cents/bushel
- Price decreased: 78 times
- Average decrease: 7.3 cents/bushel
- No price change: 18 times
Soybean Prices Day After Crop Production reports, 1985-2017
- Price increased: 79 times
- Average increase: 15.4 cents/bushel
- Price decreased: 81 times
- Average decrease: 16 cents/bushel
- No price change: 4 times
Wheat Prices Day After Crop Production reports, 1987-2017
- Price increased: 74 times
- Average increase: 7.9 cents/bushel
- Price decreased: 84 times
- Average decrease: 7.5 cents/bushel
- No price change: 10 times
Are you surprised to read that prices don’t always drop?
“It’s not uncommon to hear farmers say the crop reports negatively impact prices, when in fact, it’s just about even across the board with the number of times prices have gone up or down,” Knopf said.
It can be useful to understand the relative changes over time, and farmers can decide to sell crops or livestock or keep until after reports come out.
“NASS reports, of course, are not solely responsible for changes to prices,” Knopf said. “Price reactions might be a reaction to what people thought was going to be in the report. Another example of price reactions not necessarily responding to reports: With the forecasts for grains in August, if there’s a weather event in the preceding day or two, it’s possible the market reacts to that event, rather than the actual numbers coming out in the crop report.”
To view the full report, visit http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/PRCropReport/PRCropReport-03-09-2018.pdf. For more information about Kentucky surveys and reports, call the NASS Kentucky Field Office at (800) 928-5277, or visit https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kentucky/.